Brazil vs Argentina — Can Either Win World Cup 2026?

South America Wants the Trophy Back

The last time a South American nation won the World Cup outside of South America was Brazil in 1958 — in Sweden. Since then, the trophy has stayed in Europe when the tournament is held in the northern hemisphere. In 2026, hosted in North America, Brazil and Argentina both believe they can break that pattern.

Brazil — The Eternal Contenders

Brazil have not won the World Cup since 2002. Twenty-four years. Their longest drought since winning it for the first time in 1958. The opening draw against Morocco — despite Vinicius scoring — raised questions. Can Brazil defend against organized, disciplined opponents? Can they win matches when Vinicius is neutralized?

The honest answer: Brazil have the quality to reach the Final. Vinicius is the best winger in the world. Rodrygo is world-class. The midfield has been built for this tournament. But their defensive vulnerability — exposed briefly against Morocco — could cost them against elite European opponents in the knockout rounds.

Argentina — The Defending Champions

Argentina enter 2026 as defending champions with Messi at 38 in his final tournament. The squad is slightly weaker than 2022 — Di Maria retired, some veterans aged — but Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, and a disciplined defensive unit keep them competitive. They will reach the quarter-finals. Beyond that depends on the draw.

The Path to the Final

For Brazil to win: they need Vinicius at his absolute best for 7 consecutive matches, their defence to hold against European opponents, and a favorable bracket from the Round of 32. All three are possible but not guaranteed simultaneously.

For Argentina to win: they need Messi to produce three or four defining moments, Alvarez to score 4-5 goals, and the defensive unit to replicate the 2022 solidity. And they need to avoid France until the Final.