Who Will Win the Golden Boot at World Cup 2026?

The Race for the Golden Boot

The Golden Boot is awarded to the top scorer at World Cup 2026. With 104 matches and 48 nations, there will be goals aplenty — but only one player lifts the Golden Boot. After the opening matches, here is how the race looks.

The Favourites

Kylian Mbappe — France (Odds: 3/1)

The overwhelming favourite. Mbappe has scored 12 World Cup goals in just two tournaments — the fastest accumulation in history. In 2022 he scored 8 goals including a Final hat-trick. With France likely to go deep in 2026 and Mbappe as penalty taker, set-piece option, and first-choice finisher, he has more routes to goals than any other player in the tournament. If France reach the Final, he will score 7-9 goals.

Erling Haaland — Norway (Odds: 6/1)

The most prolific scorer in club football over the last three years. His first World Cup. If Norway navigate a favorable group and reach the Round of 16, Haaland could score 4-5 goals — making him a serious contender. The risk: Norway face tougher opposition in the knockout rounds.

Kai Havertz — Germany (Odds: 8/1)

Already on 2 goals after the first match against Curaçao. Germany penalty taker, set-piece presence, and first-choice striker. If Germany go deep, Havertz accumulates goals steadily rather than in explosive bursts. A potential dark horse for the Golden Boot if Germany reach the semi-finals.

Vinicius Jr. — Brazil (Odds: 7/1)

Already scored against Morocco. Brazil system is built to create chances for him. If Brazil reach the Final, he could score 6-7 goals. The risk: against elite defensive nations, Brazil may struggle to create the open chances Vinicius needs.

The Surprise Contender

Ayoub Bouaddi — Morocco

He does not score goals regularly — he is a midfielder. But his performance against Brazil has elevated him to a different level of attention. If Morocco go deep and he adds goals to his already extraordinary midfield contribution, he becomes a Best Young Player candidate rather than Golden Boot — but watch this space.