World Cup 2026 — Who Gets Eliminated in the Group Stage?

16 Nations Will Go Home Early

World Cup 2026 has 48 teams competing in 12 groups of 4. The top 2 from each group plus the 8 best third-placed teams advance — 32 in total. That means 16 nations will be eliminated in the group stage. Some of these eliminations will be expected. A few will be genuine shocks. Here are our predictions for the biggest group stage casualties.

Expected Eliminations

Curaçao

Already 7-1 down after the first match. The smallest nation in World Cup history, making their debut. They will not advance, but they scored a goal against Germany — and that is a historic moment for Caribbean football.

Haiti

Lost 1-0 to Scotland in the opening match. In a group with Brazil and Morocco, they face an almost impossible task to advance. A creditable performance will be their achievement.

Qatar

Despite their surprising 1-1 draw with Switzerland, Qatar face extremely tough opposition in the remaining group matches. Their qualifying was difficult and their squad quality is significantly below the European and South American nations they face.

The Shock Eliminations

Belgium

An aging squad with De Bruyne at 35 as their best player. Belgium are in a group that, on paper, they should navigate. But if results go against them in the early matches, the pressure mounts quickly on a squad that has declined significantly from their 2018 peak.

Portugal

The Ronaldo question dominates everything. If he is not starting — or if he starts and underperforms — the psychological impact on the squad is significant. Portugal have enough quality to advance, but the transition from the Ronaldo era to the Neves and Joao Felix era creates instability at exactly the wrong time.