Defending the Impossible Trophy
No nation has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. Italy tried in 1938 and succeeded — but that was a different era. Argentina, who won in Qatar in 2022, arrive in 2026 as defending champions with Messi now having equalled the all-time scoring record. Can they do what Brazil achieved 64 years ago?
The Argument For
Messi at peak motivation — the record in reach, the final tournament, the burning desire to prove that 2022 was not a one-off but a confirmation of his greatness. Lautaro Martinez as captain — more experienced, more clinical than in 2022. A defensive unit that has been together for years. Julain Alvarez at 26 in his prime. The tournament experience that only comes from winning it.
The Argument Against
Squads that win are always targeted tactically — opponents study every match, every pattern, every vulnerability. The 2022 Argentina squad had surprise on their side. In 2026, every opponent knows exactly what Argentina do and how to stop it. Di Maria retired. Some key squad members have aged. France and Brazil are both stronger than any 2022 opponent Argentina faced.
Historical Precedent
The last four defending champions at World Cups have all been eliminated in the group stage or Round of 16: France 2002, Italy 2010, Spain 2014, Germany 2018. The defending champion curse is real — and Argentina will need to defy it.
Our Assessment
Argentina reach the semi-finals. They will not win back-to-back. France are better. Brazil are equally motivated. But Argentina semi-final run — with Messi breaking the all-time scoring record along the way — will be one of the great stories of World Cup 2026.
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